In September 2008, the world entered into a massive financial crisis, triggered by the loss of confidence by investors in the value of securitised mortgages in the US during 2007, of which caused a worldwide recession by April 2009. Although the worldwide financial crisis originated from the United States, its effects were felt on a huge scale by economies around the world, including China.
China has a huge trading surplus with foreign countries, especially the United States. The balance of trade between China and the United States was, by February 2009, US$34.8 billion in favour of China. The President of the United States in 2009, Barack Obama, had accused China of fixing their exchange rates to take advantage of foreign trade and investment. It is true, of course, that the purchasing power parity in China is equal to about ten times as much as many Western countries. In fact, in 2008 China was ranked the second large economy in the world using the PPP as a measurement, second only to the US.
China’s phenomenal growth rate during the early 21st century was supported mainly by manufacturing exports. Following the financial troubles experienced in the West and the bankruptcy of several banks, letters of credit became unavailable to importers, especially in America. The Baltic Dry Index which is used to calculate the price of shipping goods fell drastically during the second half of 2008, losing 90 percent of its value within six months.
This was mainly due to the collapse of world trade, an event made official by the International Monetary Fund on January 29, 2009. As a result, by January 2009, China’s exports had dropped to their lowest level since April 1999. JP Morgan’s chairwoman of China equities Jing Ulrich, stated in a report by the BBC: Export growth is likely to be flat in 2009, with negative year-over-year growth in the near-term. Nevertheless, during December of 2008, China had still managed to boast a US$39 billion trade surplus, despite the recent drop in exports. Economist Stephen Green, on the other hand, argued that China’s trade surplus might be an illusion, since capital inflows amounting up to US$67 billion, disguised as trade, account for the net balance of trade in China.
The vice chairman of the State Development Planning Commission of China, Zhang Guobao, stated in the People’s Daily newspaper: “The international financial crisis… is equally a challenge and an opportunity. The slowdown… has reduced the price of international energy resources and assets and favors our search for overseas resources.” The government of China began buying up bargain assets overseas by concentrating on energy and resources companies in need of bail-outs. The China Development Bank financed China’s biggest-ever foreign investment a US$19.5 billion dollar bid for 18 percent of Rio Tinto, an Australian mining company in desperate need for investment to finance its US$19 billion worth of debts. Paul Cavey of Macquarie Bank, stated: The amount of money coming out of Beijing suggests they are confident that we are at the bottom of the market adding that they still have a lot of money to play with.
Rio Tinto announced on Feburary 12, 2009 that they are unanimously recommending to shareholders a transaction with Aluminium Corporation of China (“Chinalco”), a leading Chinese diversified resources company. The transaction delivers cash proceeds to Rio Tinto of US$19.5 billion, raises significant funds at a time when financial markets are distressed, creates a partnership between an Australian company and Chinese company, subject to regulatory approval.
The Chinalco Rio Tinto partnership is just one example of many Chinese government bailouts of foreign companies. The Chinese government had also sank $39 billion in three separate deals to secure future oil supplies from Russia, Brazil, and Venezuela. China seemed to be more interested in natural resources than investing in banks, as noted by top economist in Asia, Andy Xie.
On May 10, 2008, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced that it will invest in a bond denominated in Special Drawing Rights with the IMF an international organisation that supervises and provides advice to countries about economic policy and lends to countries experiencing balance of trade problems. Hu Xiaolan, a vice president of the Bank of the People’s Republic of China, seemed OK with the prospect of using the renminbi to play a greater role with international markets, and stated in a press conference: It’s not simply a case of a country wanting to internationalise a currency. It needs the recognition of the market and the confidence of investors in the country’s policies.
The managing director of the IMF, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, said in a press conference on April 23, 2009, that the slowdown in China’s growth, as in other countries, has in effect a very deep slowdown in the imports, and the effect on the world economy is important. He also noted that he won’t draw any kind of consequences [about the] role of China in Asia and the way China will help, or not, the Asian part of the world to get out of the crisis. It is a global crisis. There is no way for Asia to get out of the crisis without the rest of the world getting out of the crisis. That is why we need a global view, and in this global view, certainly, the Chinese economy today plays a big role.
China seems to be taking its role in the ongoing world-wide economic crisis seriously. The People’s Bank of China submitted a report on their website on the 1st of April, 2009 about China’s commitments made during the recent G20 summit:
President Hu Jintao… made a solemn commitment at the Summit, saying that, “as a responsible member of the international community, China will continue to take an active part in the international cooperation to keep international financial stability and promote world economic growth, support international financial organizations in increasing financing capacity in response to the changes in the international financial market and extend greater support for the developing countries influenced by the crisis. We are willing to actively participate in the trade financing plan of the World Bank International Finance Corporation (IFC)”.
The article by The People’s Bank of China also stated that China has actively participated in the World Bank’s trade finance program, provided liquidity assistance to trade finance programs of regional multilateral development institutions provided over US$650 million to… multilateral development institutions in cumulative terms [and] launched bilateral trade finance programs.
China remains in a strong economical position in the aftermath of the credit crisis, and it is said to have been an oasis of relative economic stability. Despite having its domestic economy weakened as a result of the crisis, by May 2009, data suggests that China may be on the rebound. The comments made by Chinese President Hu Jintao and Zhou Xiaochuan suggested that China has a clearly made plan to recover:
More money will be lent to the International Monetary Fund US$95 billion in currency swap deals with six countries (trading in CNY instead of USD) US$52 billion in foreign acquisitions, two thirds of which are focused on natural resources Multi-billion dollar lines of credit to countries rich in oil resources.
How will China play out in economic terms in the months and years to come? As Zhang Guobao suggested, the international economic trouble might be an historic opportunity for net surplus countries such as China to have their voices heard on the international stage, much like the recent G20 summit. As a result, China will most probably be playing a more prominent role in international affairs from now on.